Obama???s Uphill Re-Election Climb Likely to Become Much Steeper (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | While the four remaining GOP candidates are busy ripping each other apart on the campaign trail, the Washington Times quoted Barack Obama saying in January that he is "absolutely confident we're going to win this thing."

However, once the Republican nominee is chosen and ultimately sets his sights on the incumbent president, his certainty for achieving a second term in the White House might not be so steadfast.

A January 31 poll by Gallup shows that the president's approval rating is at 50 percent or higher in only 10 states and Washington, D.C.

"Historically, the best predictor of a president's re-election chances has been approval rating," the New York Times reported Wednesday. "Since World War II, every president with an approval rating a few points above 50 percent has won re-election. Every president with a rating clearly below 50 percent has lost."

However, while Times reporter David Leonhardt suggests a pending "nail-biter" if you "cut through some of the noise of the coming campaign" and focus on Obama's approval numbers, he failed to point out that Gallup showed Obama's approval was 50 percent or higher in 16 states and D.C. just six months ago.

"If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011," the Washington Examiner reported Wednesday, "Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215."

While Obama's administration was quick to tout the unemployment rate had finally crawled its way back to 8.5 percent in December -- even though we were assured in 2009 that unemployment would not dip below 8 percent if the now failed trillion-dollar stimulus bill was passed -- there was no mention that the 8.5 percent is representative of a significantly smaller workforce. As put forth by the Congressional Budget Office, if you factor in the number of long-term unemployed Americans who were not counted because they simply stopped looking, December's real unemployment rate is actually upwards of 10 percent.

Additionally, while Obama heralded himself for creating 200,000 jobs in the private sector during the month of December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed 70,000 of them -- 42,000 couriers and 28,000 retail workers -- to temporary jobs brought about by the holiday season.

Obama and his administration have been mum on Thursday's Gallup report that shows unemployment already climbed back to 8.6 percent in January.

"In the last three years, we've worked hard to get out of this mess and we've made some remarkable progress," The Hill quoted First Lady Michelle Obama saying to 135 high-profile Hollywood supporters at a private campaign event for her husband in Los Angeles on Tuesday. Among his "promises kept" she listed healthcare reform and the removal of troops from Iraq.

However Mrs. Obama avoided mention of Rasmussen's January survey that shows 52 percent of likely American voters want Obama Care repealed, that it will cost budget strapped states billions. She did not speak of the 27 states that have already sued over its unconstitutionality and she made no mention of how Democrats are terrified that the Supreme Court -- scheduled to begin hearing the case on March 26 --will rule to kill the bill just before November's general election.

Mrs. Obama also forgot to cite that, since the troop withdrawal, Iraq has fallen into chaos.

The national debt is over $15 trillion. The United States had its credit rating downgraded for the first time in history. After his own Democrat controlled congress refused to pass his $477 billion American Jobs Act he simply doubled down by demanding another trillion-dollar debt hike and another $5 billion to $10 billion for home financing.

$477 billion, $1 trillion, $5 billion, $10 billion -- it's only money.

One-in-two American households are living below the poverty level. The misery index is at a 28-year high, only 36 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama has handled the economy and only 29 percent of likely voters believe the president is taking the country in the right direction.

Then there's the growing stack of Solyndra debacles, the quickening discomfiture of Fast and Furious, his close ties to scandal ridden former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, the ire of Catholics about the contraception mandate and his war against America's energy producers and his decision to block the Keystone Pipeline while claiming he is determined to achieve energy independence and create jobs.

These things will not be so easy for Obama to dismiss with a song no matter how golden his voice.

Of course the most difficult challenge for the president will be explaining his own words and making a convincing case to American voters as to exactly why he deserves re-election.

"I will be held accountable," Obama told NBC's Today co-host Matt Lauer in February 2009. "I've got four years and -- year from now, I think people are going to see that we're starting to make some progress, but there's still going to be some pain out there. If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/gop/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20120202/pl_ac/10920625_obamas_uphill_reelection_climb_likely_to_become_much_steeper

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