Avocados and Christmas Trees ? Vancouver Land Use; ALR; Food ...

In view of yesterday?s spirited and informative discussion (thanks, all), we have withdrawn this morning?s teed-up anecdote and invite the continuation of yesterday?s discussion here today. [Here are a few comments from yesterday's thread]:

?There seem to be some misconceptions about the size and capacity of the ALR.
?The minimum amount of agricultural land necessary for sustainable food security, with a diversified diet similar to those of North America and Western Europe (hence including meat), is 0.5 of a hectare per person. This does not allow for any land degradation such as soil erosion, and it assumes adequate water supplies. Very few populous countries have more than an average of 0.25 of a hectare. It is realistic to suppose that the absolute minimum of arable land to support one person is a mere 0.07 of a hectare?and this assumes a largely vegetarian diet, no land degradation or water shortages, virtually no post-harvest waste, and farmers who know precisely when and how to plant, fertilize, irrigate, etc. [FAO, 1993]?
Total hectares of ALR in fraser valley: 132,760 in 2009 (stats canada) (less today)
132,760/0.07 = 1.9 million people. That?s how many the ALR can support, best case scenario. That?s for people fed a subsistence, almost vegan diet, where one crop failure means famine.
Keeping current diets up: 265,500 people. (That?s 0.26 million).
Current lower mainland population: 2.6 million.
While fishing adds to the total number of people, we are nevertheless completely dependent on food imports. Any food supply chain disruption is going to cause a slight? inconvenience to the normal process of cellular respiration. Worth keeping in mind when we look at the planned growth strategy for the region ? was it 4 million by 2050??
- The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous

?Out of anything that should be outsourced and diversified for stability shouldn?t food be? Locavore sentiments are great, but in reality, being able to transfer food from areas of plenty to areas with little is sort of a fundamental requirement for stable societies. Starving people tend to get pretty cranky.?
- UBCghettodweller

?The issue is transportation. We are wholly dependent on liquid fuels for that, and they just quadrupled in cost in a decade. It?s an awfully long way by sailboat or horsewagon from the places that have the food to those that don?t. The second issue are chemical fertilizers, which will also become scarcer, diminishing yields per acre everywhere.?
- The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous

?The ALR is not about locavore sentiments. It?s about security. It?s well and good to diversify and outsource food production, but if one day one of the areas with plenty can?t or won?t send the food shipments for whatever reason, a shitload of people get very cranky, very quickly.?
- The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous

?Acquaculture? More factory chicken farms? Electrified railways supplied by nuclear or hydro power? Nuclear generated hydrogen for transport? Not to be flippant or anything, but I?ve been hearing about the end of the world for over 2,000 years, and science has proven that mankind is unsustainable for 200 years. Yet our food production and productivity continues to grow, birthrate is declining in most countries, and we?ve always solved our problems before. I think it?s a bit egotistical to think that, even though everything, been (comparatively) skittles and beer for our species for 200,000 years now, it?s all going to go pear shaped before this generation passes the baton.?
- Ralph Cramdown

??Running out of land?. ?Immigration?. ?Mountains?. ?Water?. ?Hard asset?. The list goes on. What these rationales have in common, besides being fallacious, is that they?re nice ?n easy for folks to understand, and make handy talking points for promoters. And how about this gem, heard from a senior RBC advisor, in defence of Vancouver?s current real estate prices: ?Well, everyone needs a roof over their head!?
- El Ninja

?We are completely dependent on food imports.?
Then, why are we growing Christmas trees instead of wheat in the ALR?
- Cyril Tourneur

?Christmas trees? That?s part of what the Fraser Institute calls ?human ingenuity and market forces.? Have you all considered that this obsession with being self-sufficient in the lower mainland is just a group version of ?Prepper? madness?
?Britain has not been fully self-sufficient since the eighteenth century. It imported large quantities of wheat, eggs and sugar during the Victorian era, growing an increasingly small proportion of what it ate until World War II, when millions of consumers followed the plea to ?dig for victory?. This self-sufficiency trend was immediately reversed after the war ended, however.?
Even at the height of the Battle of the Atlantic, people weren?t starving in Britain. Those in the cities weren?t eating well, but they weren?t starving. And, not to put too fine a point on it, commodity and shipping prices were rather high at that point. Y?all are wanting to prepare for a worse scenario than that??
- Ralph Cramdown

?

A few thoughts from a non-expert in this field:

This all looks like a problem with dietary behaviours as much as it is a problem with land use.
As an example, Vancouver Island apparently imports 90% of its food. We suspect that number could be reduced by a lot, but people choose not to produce the food and/or change their diets.

It seems people enjoy having access to the dietary variety offered by foods sourced globally. Who wants to give up avocados and bananas unless necessary? Consequently, dietary behaviour will likely be shaped by circumstance rather than choice: people will only give up certain items when they become unavailable, or prohibitively expensive. Fuel costs and other such considerations will likely apply natural pressures in this regard. People will have to adapt. If such changes happen in a precipitous fashion, that could be a problem.

As a society, should we put the effort and resources into developing an arrangement where we ensure that adequate ongoing protein and calories supplies for our entire population are available from BC & Canadian sources? We could do this, but there would be substantial expense involved. A bit like earthquake preparation, or forms of insurance. A diet from such sources would likely be far less diversified than we currently enjoy; it?d be more an emergency measure than an immediate and total replacement for current diets. Surplus during non-crisis periods (such as the present) could be exported, perhaps making the system partly self-supporting.
How close are we to having such a plan working right now?
If we had to immediately stop all food imports/exports, what would our diets look like?
Would we have enough calories/protein to sustain the Canadian population?
Even if we did set up such a plan, we?d expect people to continue to enjoy the diversified globally-sourced diet, while it was still available. Ingenuity may allow for current circumstances to continue for far longer than many anticipate.

Yesterday I expressed the opinion: ?I think that the ?scarcity? of land (in Vancouver) is greatly over exaggerated, even within the ALR restraints. At the same time, I suspect that the ALR applies even further artificial limitations on land that is available? I suspect that there is massive amounts of land available for the accommodation of people, AND enough land to meet our agricultural needs.? Perhaps I?m wrong on the latter bit, as TPFKAA has suggested.
But what percentage of Vancouver?s food supply currently comes from the ALR?
If the ALR is only supplying us with a small fraction of our current diets, how important is it as part of any future food supply plan?
If the ALR is being used to grow Christmas trees, to support ?hobby farms?, and to grow crops that are largely exported, why not more strongly encourage it to be used it for local food supply, or, alternatively, use it for housing?

- vreaa

?
Pre-emptive retort from TPFKAA:
?We need to start creating infrastructure that can tap other sources, or changing our profligacy with energy use, or both. While in principle there may be enough alternative energy to supply our needs, it takes many, many years to put the machinery in place to tap into these energies. You can?t build the port mann bridge in a day, nor can you replace the energy from oil at the pace of market forces. Market forces will lead to an abrupt cutoff, with not enough time to put that infrastructure in place. It?s hard to build and design shit when you hungry, the lights don?t work, and trucks can?t carry yo shit around. S?all I?m sayin, y?know?
The ALR is a damn important piece of land that needs not to have condos and sprawly mcmansions slapped onto it. It is a part of the solution.?

Source: http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/12/11/avocados-and-christmas-trees-vancouver-land-use-alr-food/

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Scientists rethink risks after quake convictions

SAN FRANCISCO ?? After six Italian scientists were sentenced to six years in prison for failing to warn the public of a devastating 2009 earthquake, experts are rethinking how they communicate risk.

The magnitude-6.3 earthquake hit the town of L'Aquila, Italy, on April 6, 2009, killing 309 people. A week prior to the quake, city officials had made reassuring statements that downplayed the risk, according to prosecutors, of a major quake linked to a series of smaller tremors. Prosecutors argued that the seismologists' risk analysis was flawed and that the statements made by city officials convinced residents not to evacuate, costing lives.

The group "got snookered into answering a simple yes or no question: Will we be hit by a large earthquake?" said Thomas Jordan, a researcher at the Southern California Research Center at the University of Southern California. "Seismologists can't provide an answer to that type of question."

The scientific community has been frightened by the possibility that seismologists could face criminal charges for failing to predict an earthquake ? even though there's no way to truly forecast a temblor. [ See Photos of L'Aquila Earthquake Destruction ]

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But the L'Aquila events have also forced hazard experts to reassess how they discuss risk with the public. For instance, scientists should actually state the numerical odds of a catastrophe striking, not rely on qualitative descriptions like "low chance," Jordan told LiveScience.

Downplaying risk
Prior to the quake, the quaint medieval town of L'Aquila had experienced a swarm of temblors. But in a press conference a week before the main earthquake, a city official (who was not a seismologist) said "the scientific community tells me there is no danger because there is an ongoing discharge of energy," reported Nature News.

That statement, which most experts think is not scientifically accurate, may have kept people from evacuating the town. The statement was a key part of the prosecution's argument that city officials and scientists were guilty of manslaughter, said Max Wyss, the director of the World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction.

Conveying the odds
So how should scientists communicate the odds of a cataclysmic event?

In 2008, Jordan and colleagues conducted a study that assessed the disaster protocols in six major countries known to have a lot of seismic activity. None of the countries had a formalized process to calculate earthquake probability and describe it to the public, he said.

Jordan and his team concluded that giving hard numbers is key: For instance, saying the odds of " the big one " are 1 in 100 or 1 in 10,000.

It's also important to compare the odds of an infrequent disaster with everyday risks that people are familiar with, such as a hurricane for people in the Caribbean, said Stephen Sparks, a volcanologist at the University of Bristol. People should also be told how much the odds of an earthquake or volcanic eruption have risen relative to the baseline, or normal seismicity in that area, he said.

But beyond that, seismologists need to convey the uncertainty in those estimates of probability, Jordan said.

"You actually have to deal with probabilities of probabilities," Jordan said. "That can be a technically difficult conversation."

Even though most people aren't math whizzes, they have a decent estimate of risk probability as long as it's described well, he said. For instance, in a survey Jordan conducted, Californians knew they faced fairly high odds of seeing a major earthquake, and that the state's southern region faces greater risk than Northern California, he said.

At the end of the day, public officials should have a set of protocols in place that use these estimates of risk, elevated activity and uncertainty to make their evacuation calls.

Follow LiveScience on Twitter @livescience. We're also on Facebook? and Google+.

? 2012 LiveScience.com. All rights reserved.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/50163123/ns/technology_and_science-science/

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pulitzer pernod: 8 Most Popular Diets Today | Health, Fitness and ...

Posted in Article on December 8, 2012

People are obsessed with diets. They are constantly seeking the right diet to help them lose weight. There are currently eight popular diets that have worked effectively for many people and providing more options for dieting.

1. Atkins Diet focuses on controlling the levels of insulin in the body through the food consumed. It is based on the consumption of proteins in the diet to reduce the levels of insulin in the bloodstream. The increasing of the proteins leads to weight loss in many people.

2. Zone Diet creates a nutritional balance with 40carbohydrates, 30fats, and 30protein. The focus is to control the insulin levels that will result in weight loss. The diet consists of unrefined carbohydrates and fats including nuts, olive oil, and avocado.

3. Vegetarian diet concentrates on eating non-animal based foods except for eggs, honey, and dairy products. Vegetarians have a lower body weight; suffer from less diseases, and longer life spans, according to current studies. Since the meat products have been removed from the diet, vegetarians consume less fat according to the studies.

4. Your Vegan diet is more a philosophy and way of life since the diet does not include any animal-based products including eggs, honey, dairy, and meat products. The concept of the diet is based more on environmental and ethical reasons versus health related issues.

5. Weight Watchers Diet focuses on weight loss, exercise, and a support network or group. Dieters have the ability of meeting in person with the groups or using online services for support. The diet reduces the types of foods consumed while increasing the levels of exercise.

6. South Beach diet focuses on the levels of insulin and refined carbohydrates in the diet. The foods consumed are low in fat as a method of controlling the insulin, which leads to weight loss and better health.

7. Raw Food Diet involves eating foods and drinks that are not processed but are only in their original form and organic. There are four types of raw foodists, raw vegetarians, raw vegans, raw omnivores, and raw carnivores. The belief of consuming the food in the raw form is the food does not have additives or extras that will cause health related issues including weight gain.

8. Mediterranean Diet is a diet from Southern Europe that focuses on the eating habits of citizens of Crete, Greece, and southern Italy. The concentration is on a lot of plant foods, fresh fruits as dessert, beans, nuts, cereals, seeds, olive oil for the main source of dietary fats, cheese and yogurts for the main dairy foods, moderate levels of fish, consuming less than four eggs a week, limited amounts of the red meat, and limited amounts of wine. The Mediterranean Diet consists of fat with the saturated fat less than 8of the caloric intake.

There are benefits of each type of diet. Depending on the personal life style, there is a diet available for everyone.

Source: http://ehealthfitnessandwellness.com/8-most-popular-diets-today/

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Source: http://pulitzer-pernod.blogspot.com/2012/12/8-most-popular-diets-today-health.html

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Video: Are we near a fiscal cliff deal?

Gas tumbles almost 10 cents a gallon in 3 weeks

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States fell nearly a dime over the past three weeks, following a drop in crude oil prices and as refineries increased output, according to a widely followed survey released on Sunday.

Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/hardball/50151835/

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AC/DC's Highway to Hell sent via a drone's laser beam

Paul Marks, senior technology correspondent

(Image: David Thorpe/Rex Features)

What is it about technology and Aussie rock band AC/DC? In July a computer hack led to the band's track Thunderstruck belting out at top volume in an Iranian nuclear power plant. Now AC/DC's signature hit Highway to Hell is riding on a laser beam that's being bounced off a drone in mid-flight. When the beam is reflected to a ground sensor the full glory of the music is reconstructed without a cymbal crash out of place.

Don't worry, it's not a new sonic weapon. To make drones lighter and and operate longer reconnaissance missions without refuelling, Yoann Thueux and colleagues at EADS Innovation Works in Newport, UK, eschew the heavy radio equipment and antennas used to beam acquired video back to base. Instead, they are developing a laser reflector called Dazzle that can simply add the drone's acquired video data to a laser beam bounced off the craft's belly by a tracking system up to 2 kilometres away.

After the laser beam enters the reflector, it passes through a transparent switch, called a light modulator, that adds the digital zeroes and ones of the video data to the beam. The light then hits a mirror and is reflected back to the spot it came from - carrying the video data. The tech will allow a speed boost to 1 gigabit per second - easily allowing faster delivery of HD video, which struggles to top 20 megabits per second with radio frequencies.

The reflector and its ground UAV tracking system began tests on a disused runway at a former Royal Air Force base in Pershore, UK, last week. The first test aimed to see if the system could simply reflect an encoded laser beam from a moving eight-rotor helicopter drone, the Okto from Mikrocopter of Germany.

Thueux thought Highway to Hell a great choice of data to stream on the laser. "It was on my iPod and I thought it would be a good song to go first because I know it completely by heart. I'd be the first to tell if the technology was not working properly on playback."

So what tunes might will fly are next? "I happen to be in a band, so maybe one of our tracks," says Thueux. "But a colleague is also suggesting Fly Me To The Moon."

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'They are killers': Syria will use chemical weapons, general says

A former top general in Syria's chemical weapons program says he doesn't doubt for a moment that President Bashar al-Assad will deploy his chemical weapons arsenal as he tries to hold onto power and crush the uprising that started almost two years ago.

"The regime started to fall and deteriorate. It's coming to its end," said retired Major General Adnan Sillou in an interview in a hotel near Antakya, on Turkey's southern border with Syria. "It's highly possible that he'll start using [chemical weapons] to kill his own people because this regime is a killer."

Sillou told ABC News that until September 2008, he was chief of staff on the defensive side of the chemical weapons program. He said he was in charge of training soldiers against attacks and contact with the weapons, as well as procuring safety equipment to guard against them.

He listed mustard gas along with the sarin, VX and tabun nerve agents as the main elements in Syria's chemical arsenal, whose existence Syria doesn't even acknowledge. Foreign intelligence officials and analysts have focused on the first three as the main threats, and last week U.S. officials said there was evidence sarin had not only been moved, but its binary components, usually stored separately, had been combined and placed into bombs for use.

Sillou accuses Assad's forces of already spraying pesticides and dropping white phosphorous, claims also made by opposition activists.

"They're idiots, crazy. Simply they are killers," he said.

Sillou believes the regime could step it up to more serious chemical weapons if Aleppo, Syria's most populous city where fighting has raged for months, falls to the rebels.

In July, Sillou left Syria for Turkey almost four years after he said he retired from the military. Sillou told ABC News that in his last post, which he held for six years, he was second in command behind a man named Said Ali Khalil, a member of Assad's ruling Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

After defecting, Sillou said he was debriefed by an Arabic-speaking agent from the Central Intelligence Agency in Turkey's capital, Ankara. The meeting lasted three hours and was the last contact he said he had with them or any other intelligence agency.

Fighting is raging around the capital, Damascus, notably on the airport road where rebels are trying to take the airport to hamper outside support and deal a highly symbolic blow to the regime. The uptick in violence near the seat of Assad's power has raised American fears that he could resort to using his chemical weapons.

Syria's Chemical Weapons Worry West

President Obama and other world leaders have said their use would cross a "red line" and invite an as-yet undefined action, possibly military. But analysts have expressed skepticism that Assad is at the point where he needs to use chemical weapons and knows what the repercussions could be.

"As long as he's trying to hold onto the country, I don't think he'll use them," said Joshua Landis, a Syria analyst and professor at the University of Oklahoma. "As long as he's in Damascus, strategically they're not helpful to him. It's a death warrant as soon as he uses them."

"I don't think he's crazy, I think the generals around him are calculating," Landis continued. But "this danger from the rebels is one that could be extreme. Once [the regime gets] their backs against the wall, the chances of using them goes way up."

The United States and its allies have repeatedly expressed concern that Syria's stockpile, believed to be one of the biggest in the world, could be stolen and fall into extremist hands if the facilities are overrun. Or, before that happens, they could be transferred to Hezbollah by a crumbling Syrian regime.

"Syria has 600 chemical warheads apart from the liquid chemical substance which is being stored," said Sillou. "The bombs are easily transported from one place to another. To Hezbollah, which could be used against Israel, to [Shiite cleric] Moqatada al-Sadr in Iraq. The regime can give it to any friendly groups."

"They are not safe at all," Sillou said of the facilities. Asked about the dozens of chemical weapons sites the U.S. believes to be spread across the country, he said the primary facilities are called 417 and 418, near Damascus and the third-largest city Homs, respectively.

Sillou argued the arsenal was developed as a counterbalance to neighboring Israel's nuclear arsenal, an open secret not acknowledged by Israel. But he said they would only be used against external forces if Syria was attacked.

The comment was similar with one by Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi in July who said chemical weapons would never be used against the Syrian people, just "external aggression." Makdissi is believed to have been sidelined shortly after that tacit acknowledgment of the chemical weapons' existence, and last week reportedly defected and left Syria.

Just two people have the power to order a chemical weapons attack aside from Assad, Sillou said: the head of Air Force intelligence Jamil Hassan and head of state security Ali Mamlouk.

However, "I don't think it will be used without [Assad's] consent," he added.

Sillou is now hoping to mount a brigade called "Mountain Heroes," comprising some 2,000 men who would help secure the chemical weapons facilities. He says he has 15 chemical weapons officers ready to work with him and is calling for weapons and funding from the U.S.

"I have trained officers," he said. "I want [the U.S.] to support me with money, with advanced weapons to occupy these facilities and protect these stockpiles."

Also Read

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/assad-chemical-weapons-says-former-general-now-defector-185035304--abc-news-topstories.html

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Neither side giving ground in "fiscal cliff" talks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner's office held more negotiations on Monday on ways to break the "fiscal cliff" stalemate, although neither side showed any public signs that they were ready to give ground.

The talks gained urgency after Republican Boehner met at the White House with President Barack Obama on Sunday, raising hopes of progress in averting the onset of tax increases and spending cuts that kicks in on January 1 unless Congress intervenes.

But while striking a more conciliatory tone, both sides kept to a familiar script in the weeks-long standoff. Obama renewed his call for higher tax rates for the richest Americans, which most Republicans oppose, while Republican leaders urged Obama to submit a new offer with specific spending cuts he would back.

Economists say going over the fiscal cliff could throw the United States back into a recession.

On a road trip to Michigan to drum up support for his stance, Obama said he was willing to compromise on some things but not on his demand that Republicans support an increase in tax rates for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans.

"What you need is a package that keeps taxes where they are for middle-class families, we make some tough spending cuts on things that we don't need, and then we ask the wealthiest Americans to pay a slightly higher tax rate, and that's a principle I won't compromise on," Obama said during a visit to an auto plant in Redford, Michigan.

Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said Republicans were still waiting for the president to make a new offer that identifies the spending cuts he will make in the deficit-reduction negotiations.

"The Republican offer made last week remains the Republican offer," Steel said, adding the two sides were holding staff-level talks on Monday.

Boehner and the House Republican leadership submitted their terms for a deal to the White House last week, after Obama presented his opening proposal. Both sides seek to cut budget deficits by more than $4 trillion over the next 10 years but differ drastically on how to get there.

Boehner and Republicans oppose letting any tax rates increase and prefer to find new revenues by closing loopholes and limiting deductions. Republicans also want deeper spending cuts than Obama has offered in entitlements like the Medicare and Medicaid healthcare programs.

Democrats have insisted that tax rates for the richest must be nailed down before negotiating further on how to proceed with tax reform efforts or new cuts in entitlement programs.

'A DEAL IS POSSIBLE'

"I can only say that the president believes that a deal is possible," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters on the flight to Michigan. "But it requires acceptance and acknowledgement in a concrete way by Republicans that the top 2 percent will see an increase in their rates."

Later on Monday a White House official also said Obama spoke by phone with Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid.

Financial markets have calmed recently after a series of wild swings, when nearly every utterance from a politician about the looming budget crisis caused volatility in stock prices.

Polling shows most Americans would blame Republicans if the country went over the cliff, and pressure has been building from some Republicans for Boehner to get an agreement quickly, even if it means tax hikes on the wealthiest.

Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee called for a quick deal with the White House to allow an extension of the lower tax rates that have been in place for about a decade, except for the top two rates that Obama wants to raise.

"Right now there is no question in my mind the president has the slight upper hand in the negotiations," Corker said on CNBC on Monday.

He said there was support among Senate Republicans for taking that step so the fiscal cliff negotiations could then shift to focusing on how to restrain the growing costs of Medicare and other entitlement programs.

"If you did it this week (agree to raising tax rates on the richest) you'd have the rest of this month to have the focus totally on entitlements," said Corker, who has a record of reaching out to Democrats on major bills.

More conservative Senate Republicans, most notably Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, also have signaled a willingness to let tax rates rise on higher-income groups.

Erskine Bowles, co-chairman of the so-called Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction commission, said he thought chances were improving for a deal.

"I think the atmospherics are getting so much better. We have kind of gotten out of Kabuki theater and gone to dancing the tango," Bowles told CNBC on Monday. "Any time you start to tango you've got a chance."

Bowles said he did not expect the president to give in on his demand that taxes rise for the top 2 percent of earners.

"I would almost guarantee that rates are going to go up for people in the top 2 percent," he said.

U.S. stocks edged higher on Monday but concerns that lawmakers will not broker a deal have kept a lid on optimism in the equity market.

The S&P 500 index has nearly retraced the 5.3 percent slide it suffered in the first seven sessions after the November 6 presidential election.

"The sentiment has definitely changed," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York. "The market has become somewhat desensitized to headlines out of Washington because the fear of the economy hitting a wall in 2013 if we don't get a deal done has diminished."

(Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick, Steve Holland, Jeff Mason, Thomas Ferraro, Susan Heavey and Franklin Paul; Writing by John Whitesides; Editing by Alistair Bell and Eric Beech)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/neither-side-giving-ground-u-fiscal-cliff-talks-000625082--business.html

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